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Long-term Prediction of Sea-Level Changes around the Korean Peninsula over the Next One Million Years using a Conceptual Global Sea-Level Model

전지구 해수면변동 개념모델을 이용한 미래 100만년 한반도 주변 해수면 변화 예측

Sang-Yoon Jun1
,
Taewook Park1*
,
Joo-Hong Kim2
,
Wonsun Park23
,
Keyhong Park1
,
Yeongcheol Han4
,
Kwangchul Jang5
,
Changhee Han6
,
Jaesoo Lim7
전 상윤1
,
박 태욱1*
,
김 주홍2
,
박 원선23
,
박 기홍1
,
한 영철4
,
장 광철5
,
한 창희6
,
임 재수7
1Division of Ocean and Atmosphere Sciences, Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon 21990, Korea
2IBS Center for Climate Physics, Pusan National University, Busan 46241, Korea
3Department of Integrated Climate System Science, Pusan National University, Busan 46241, Korea
4Division of Glacier and Earth Sciences, Korea Polar Research Institute, Incheon 21990, Korea
5Department of Geology, Gyeongsang National University, Jinju 52828, Korea
6Department of Earth System Sciences, Yonsei University, Seoul 03722, Korea
7Space ＆ Planetary Geology Research Department, Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Daejeon 34132, Korea
1극지연구소 해양대기연구본부 (21990) 인천광역시 연수구 송도미래로 26
2부산대학교 IBS기후물리연구단 (46241) 부산광역시 금정구 부산대학로 63번길
3부산대학교 탄소중립기후변화학과 통합기후시스템전공 (46241) 부산광역시 금정구 부산대학로 63번길
4극지연구소 빙하지권연구본부 (21990) 인천광역시 연수구 송도미래로 26
5경상국립대학교 지질과학과 (52828) 경상남도 진주시 진주대로 501
6연세대학교 지구시스템과학과 (03722) 서울특별시 서대문구 연세로 50
7한국지질자원연구원 우주행성지질 연구실 (34132) 대전광역시 유성구 과학로 124
*Corresponding Author
16 April 2026. pp. 1-14
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Abstract

This study presents long-term projections of global and regional sea level changes over the next one million years using a conceptual global sea level model, and evaluates the corresponding shoreline variations around the Korean Peninsula. The global ice-volume variations over the past one million years were first simulated using a conceptual global ice-volume model, and the modeled results show a strong correlation with proxy-based global sea level reconstructions, with correlation coefficients of 0.78 for the past 800 kyr and 0.81 for the past 500 kyr, confirming the model’s long-term reproducibility. Future simulations applying five Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas scenarios indicate that under low-emission scenarios (SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5), the next glacial inception is expected to occur approximately 50–60 kyr from the present. In contrast, under high-emission scenarios (SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5), the onset of the next glaciation is delayed until 120–170 kyr in the future. Notably, the SSP5–8.5 scenario projects an exceptionally prolonged interglacial period lasting over 100 kyr, with a global mean sea-level rise of up to 24 m that persists for an

Keywords
sea-level change
glacial-interglacial cycles
conceptual sea-level model
million-year-scale change
Korean Peninsula
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Information
  • Publisher :Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국해양과학기술원
  • Journal Title :Ocean and Polar Research
  • Journal Title(Ko) :Ocean and Polar Research
  • Volume : 48
  • Pages :1-14
  • Received Date : 2025-10-28
  • Revised Date : 2026-02-05
  • Accepted Date : 2026-03-16
  • Published Date : 2026-04-16
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.4217/OPR.2026009
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