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2021 Vol.43, Issue 1

Article

Estimation of Extreme Wind Speeds in the Western North Pacific Using Reanalysis Data Synthesized with Empirical Typhoon Vortex Model

모조 태풍 합성 재분석 바람장을 이용한 북서태평양 극치 해상풍 추정

Hye-In Kim12
,
Il-Ju Moon12*
김 혜인12
,
문 일주12*
1Typhoon Research Center, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Korea
2Graduate School of Interdisciplinary Program in Marine Meteorology, Jeju National University, Jeju 63243, Korea
1제주대학교 태풍연구센터, (63243) 제주특별자치도 제주시 제주대학로 102
2제주대학교 해양기상학협동과정, (63243) 제주특별자치도 제주시 제주대학로 102
*Corresponding Author
31 March 2021. pp. 1-14
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Abstract

In this study, extreme wind speeds in the Western North Pacific (WNP) were estimated using reanalysis wind fields synthesized with an empirical typhoon vortex model. Reanalysis wind data used is the Fifth-generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA5) data, which was deemed to be the most suitable for extreme value analysis in this study. The empirical typhoon vortex model used has the advantage of being able to realistically reproduce the asymmetric winds of a typhoon by using the gale/storm-forced wind radii information in the 4 quadrants of a typhoon. Using a total of 39 years of the synthesized reanalysis wind fields in the WNP, extreme value analysis is applied to the General Pareto Distribution (GPD) model based on the Peak-Over-Threshold (POT) method, which can be used effectively in case of insufficient data. The results showed that the extreme analysis using the synthesized wind data significantly improved the tendency to underestimate the extreme wind speeds compared to using only reanalysis wind data. Considering the difficulty of obtaining long-term observational wind data at sea, the result of the synthesized wind field and extreme value analysis developed in this study can be used as basic data for the design of offshore structures.

Keywords
extreme wind speed
reanalysis data
empirical typhoon vortex model
peak-over-threshold
general pareto distribution
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국문 참고자료의 영문표기 English translation / Romanization of references originally written in Korean

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Information
  • Publisher :Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology
  • Publisher(Ko) :한국해양과학기술원
  • Journal Title :Ocean and Polar Research
  • Journal Title(Ko) :Ocean and Polar Research
  • Volume : 43
  • No :1
  • Pages :1-14
  • Received Date : 2020-10-16
  • Revised Date : 2021-01-29
  • Accepted Date : 2021-02-01
  • DOI :https://doi.org/10.4217/OPR.2021.43.1.001
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