Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northwestern Pacific simulated by an Ocean Mid-range Prediction System (OMIDAS): Seasonal Difference

Heeseok Jung; Yong Sun Kim; Ho-Jeong Shin; Chan Joo Jang

doi:10.4217/OPR.2021.43.2.053

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2021 Vol.43, Issue 2 Next Page

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Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature in the Northwestern Pacific Simulated by an Ocean Mid-Range Prediction System (OMIDAS): Seasonal Difference 북서태평양 중기해양예측모형(OMIDAS) 해면수온 예측성능: 계절적인 차이

30 June 2021. pp. 53-63

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Abstract

Changes in a marine environment have a broad socioeconomic implication on fisheries and their relevant industries so that there has been a growing demand for the medium-range (months to years) prediction of the marine environment Using a medium-range ocean prediction model (Ocean Mid-range prediction System, OMIDAS) for the northwest Pacific, this study attempted to assess seasonal difference in the mid-range predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST), focusing on the Korea seas characterized as a complex marine system. A three-month re-forecast experiment was conducted for each of the four seasons in 2016 starting from January, forced with Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) forecast data. The assessment using relative root-mean-square-error was taken for the last month SST of each experiment. Compared to the CFSv2, the OMIDAS revealed a better prediction skill for the Korea seas SST, particularly in the Yellow sea mainly due to a more realistic representation of the topography and current systems. Seasonally, the OMIDAS showed better predictability in the warm seasons (spring and summer) than in the cold seasons (fall and winter), suggesting seasonal dependency in predictability of the Korea seas. In addition, the mid-range predictability for the Korea seas significantly varies depending on regions: the predictability was higher in the East Sea than in the Yellow Sea. The improvement in the seasonal predictability for the Korea seas by OMIDAS highlights the importance of a regional ocean modeling system for a medium-range marine prediction.

Keywords

medium-range ocean prediction

SST prediction

re-forecast

regional ocean model

seasonal predictability

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Information

Publisher :Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology
Publisher(Ko) :한국해양과학기술원
Journal Title :Ocean and Polar Research
Journal Title(Ko) :Ocean and Polar Research
Volume : 43
No :2
Pages :53-63
Received Date : 2020-08-08
Revised Date : 2021-05-25
Accepted Date : 2021-06-01
DOI :https://doi.org/10.4217/OPR.2021.43.2.053

Ocean and Polar Research ISSN:2234-7313(Online) Ocean and Polar Research

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국문 참고자료의 영문표기 English translation / Romanization of references originally written in Korean